Climate Risk Mitigation: Preparing for the Impacts of El Niño 

The specter of El Niño looms large over East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) and, by extension, over Indonesia’s food security. With the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasting the continuation of this climatic event into 2024, concerns are rising about its potential to trigger a global food crisis. 

El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, disrupts typical weather patterns. This disruption can lead to prolonged dry spells in food-exporting nations, impacting the production of essential crops like soy, a crucial ingredient in animal feed. A shortfall in global animal feed production would inevitably ripple through to countries like Indonesia, affecting food availability and prices.  

The BMKG’s head, Dwikorita Karnawati, warns of the broader implications of these climatic changes. The ongoing rise in Earth’s surface temperature, which has been consistently breaking records – with July 2023 noted as the hottest July on record – is a clear indicator of these profound shifts. This warming is contributing to global water hotspots or droughts, posing a significant threat to food security. 

By mid-century, the indicators for food security in most parts of the world are expected to turn increasingly dire, with regions marked in shades of orange to black, signaling high vulnerability. Indonesia is predicted to fall into the medium vulnerability category (orange). This is particularly alarming as it implies difficulties in importing food from countries experiencing even more severe droughts.  

The BMKG, acknowledging these challenges, is intensifying its efforts in climate adaptation training, enhancing climate literacy, and promoting the transition from fossil to non-fossil energy sources. The agency’s observations suggest a sharp, unpredictable trend in climate change, urging all sectors to consider these changes in their planning and infrastructure designs. 

The implications for Indonesia’s long-term development plans are profound. The looming threat of a food crisis calls for a concerted effort in mitigating climate change impacts. This includes adopting sustainable practices, reducing dependency on fossil fuels, and enhancing resilience against climate-induced food shortages. 

For Yayasan Bambu Lingkungan Lestari (YBLL), actively involved in the Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) Net Sink 2030 project in NTT, these developments are a call to action. YBLL recognizes the need to adapt its strategies in response to these risks. The prolonged dry spells could endanger the young seedlings crucial for the project’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As such, YBLL is proactively seeking collaborations with strategic stakeholders to secure water supplies, essential for the survival of these plantings. 

As the effects of El Niño and the broader impact of climate change become increasingly evident, Indonesia faces a crucial period of adaptation and mitigation. Organizations like YBLL are at the forefront of this effort, demonstrating the importance of foresight and collaboration in addressing these emerging challenges. 

Source: 
https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/tech/20231203122404-37-494097/bmkg-ungkap-petaka-besar-ini-bayangi-ri-akibat-krisis-iklim 
https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20231230011713-4-501421/siaga-bmkg-ungkap-tanda-tanda-petaka-ancam-indonesia-emas 

El Niño in East Nusa Tenggara 2023: A Climate Challenge Requiring Action

In 2023, the Indonesian province of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) experienced a challenging demonstration of the effects of climate change, particularly through the El Niño phenomenon. This climatic event, characterized by an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean, significantly altered the region’s rainfall patterns. The situation presented a pressing challenge to an area already grappling with climate extremes. 

Throughout the year, NTT was marked by prolonged dry spells, as evidenced by data from the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). In December, while most of the province experienced short dry periods ranging from 1 to 5 days, East Sumba and South Central Timor faced extended dry spells lasting up to 30 days. These long periods of aridity affected not just agricultural practices, but also severely strained water resources in these communities.  

Rainfall levels across NTT remained low, with most areas receiving between 0 to 50 mm in December 2023. The uneven distribution of rainfall was notable, with certain regions like East Manggarai, East Sumba, Rote, and South Central Timor experiencing higher levels of up to 300 mm. This disparity in rainfall underscores the complex and localized nature of climate impacts in the region. 

Heading into early 2024, the BMKG’s forecasts indicated a continued trend of low to moderate rainfall for most of NTT. The probability of receiving 21 to 50 mm of rainfall in early January was high, affecting the region’s agricultural cycles and water availability. 

Rahmatulloh Adji, head of the NTT Class II Climatology Station, highlighted that the persistence of El Niño into early 2024 would likely delay the onset of the rainy season and shorten its duration across Indonesia. The concurrent positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was expected to further influence these climatic patterns, contributing to a delayed and erratic rainy season. 

In response to these challenges, BMKG and local authorities emphasized the need for community adaptation and mitigation efforts. Strategies such as water conservation, fire prevention, and health preparedness for respiratory infections were highlighted as critical. These efforts underscore the need for proactive and informed community participation in addressing the impacts of prolonged dry periods and irregular rainfall. 

The situation in NTT in 2023 serves as a stark reminder of the realities of climate change and the importance of sustainable environmental management. The experience of El Niño in this region underscores the need for ongoing climate monitoring, accurate forecasting, and community-centric adaptation strategies. As NTT and similar regions around the world continue to navigate these challenges, the role of organizations like BMKG in providing reliable information and guidance is increasingly crucial. The lessons learned from this year’s climatic challenges will be vital in shaping future responses and resilience strategies in the face of a changing climate.  

Source:
https://www.rri.co.id/nasional/455702/wilayah-ntt-tiga-hari-ke-depan-belum-ada-hujan
https://timesindonesia.co.id/peristiwa-daerah/482004/bmkg-merilis-hari-tanpa-hujan-di-ntt-ini-daerah-yang-mengalaminya https://mediaindonesia.com/nusantara/615179/bmkg-prakirakan-el-nino-di-ntt-bertahan-sampai-awal-2024 

The Looming Food Security Crisis in Indonesia 

By Yuventius Nicky